Google Are Predicting You!

“For each trends sequence of interest, we take a point in time, t, which is about a year back, compute a one year forecasting for t based on historical data available at time t, and compare it to the actual trends sequence that occurs since time t. The error between the forecasting trends and the actual trends characterizes the predictability level of a sequence, and when the error is smaller than a pre-defined threshold, we denote the trends query as predictable”


What does it matter to us? Search trends can be useful for advertisers, marketers, economists and scholars. Giving us new perspective into world and what we searches on a daily basis.

“We were therefore interested in the following questions:
How many search queries have trends that are predictable?
Are some categories more predictable than others? How is the distribution of predictable trends between the various categories?
How predictable are the trends of aggregated search queries for different categories? Which categories are more predictable and which are less so?
To learn about the predictability of search trends, and so as to overcome our basic limitation of not knowing what the future will entail, we characterize the predictability of a Trends series based on its historical performance. In other words, we estimate the a posteriori predictability of a sequence determined by the error of forecasted trends vs the actual performance.”

Published in: on August 19, 2009 at 10:38 am  Leave a Comment  

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